The End of an Era? Merz’s Sobering Reality Check
For decades, the phrase "rules-based international order" has been the North Star of Western diplomacy. It was the promise that through treaties, international law, and institutions like the United Nations, the world could move past the era of "might makes right." However, according to Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), that era hasn't just faded—it has vanished.
Speaking at a recent event, Merz offered a stark assessment of the current global landscape, suggesting that the structures we relied on to maintain peace and trade for nearly eighty years no longer function. His comments come at a time when the world feels increasingly fragmented, caught between the grinding attrition of the war in Ukraine and the volatile shifting sands of Middle Eastern geopolitics. For a politician widely seen as a top contender for the German Chancellery, this wasn't just a casual observation; it was a manifesto for a much more pragmatic, and perhaps colder, era of foreign policy.
Beyond the UN: A System in Paralysis
The core of Merz's argument lies in the perceived impotence of global institutions. When the United Nations Security Council finds itself perpetually deadlocked by vetoes from its permanent members, the "rules" of international engagement become little more than suggestions. This breakdown is particularly visible in the international arena, where conflicts are no longer governed by common consensus but by the raw exercise of power.
As reported by the BBC in their recent analysis of his remarks, Merz is tapping into a growing anxiety across Europe. The assumption that trade would lead to democratic reform and that economic interdependence would prevent war has been effectively debunked. Instead, we are seeing a return to "Realpolitik," where nations prioritize their own strategic interests and security over the abstract ideals of global cooperation.
The German Dilemma
Why do Merz’s words carry so much weight specifically in Germany? To understand that, one must recognize that modern Germany was built on the foundation of the rules-based order. Following World War II, Germany pivoted its entire identity toward being a "civilian power." It outsourced its security to NATO and its economic growth to globalized trade. If the rules of that game no longer exist, Germany finds itself more vulnerable than perhaps any other Western nation.
Merz’s warning serves as a catalyst for a deeper conversation about the Zeitenwende, or the "epochal turning point," that Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the current government has pledged billions to modernize the military, Merz is suggesting that the shift needs to be psychological as well as financial. Berlin can no longer afford to be a passive observer or a reluctant leader; it must navigate a world where alliances are transactional and security is hard-won.
The Transatlantic Question
A significant part of this crumbling order involves the changing role of the United States. For seventy years, the U.S. was the guarantor of the system. However, with shifts in American domestic politics and a growing focus on the Indo-Pacific, Europe is beginning to realize it can no longer take Washington’s undivided attention—or its protection—for granted. Merz, traditionally a staunch Atlanticist, is signaling that even for those who value the American alliance, the strategy must change.
This isn't about isolationism, but rather about European autonomy. If the global rulebook is being rewritten by Beijing, Moscow, and Washington, Europe must ensure it has a pen in hand. This requires a level of military and diplomatic cohesion that the European Union has historically struggled to achieve. Merz’s rhetoric suggests that under his leadership, Germany might push for a more assertive, less idealistic EU that recognizes the world as it is, rather than as we wish it to be.
A Future Built on Pragmatism
So, what replaces the rules-based order? According to many geopolitical analysts, we are entering a period of "minilateralism"—smaller groups of like-minded nations forming tactical alliances to solve specific problems. It is a more chaotic, less predictable world, but it is the reality that Merz is urging his country to face.
Critics might argue that Merz is being overly pessimistic, or perhaps even opportunistic, by framing the world in such dire terms. Yet, it is hard to ignore the evidence of a system under immense strain. From the weaponization of energy supplies to the erosion of international maritime law in the South China Sea, the old guardrails are clearly failing.
Merz’s warning is ultimately a call to action. By declaring the old order dead, he is forcing a debate on what the new one should look like. For Germany, and for the wider West, the challenge will be to protect the values of democracy and human rights in a world that no longer treats them as the default settings for international conduct. It is a difficult, dangerous transition, and as Merz points out, there is no going back to the way things were.
